This week was a wake-up call for Republicans

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Tennessee’s warning

The Democratic loss of a hotly contested special House election in Tennessee Tuesday will inspire a lot of second-guessing about whether a different candidate or different campaign tactics might have done better. 

Those are fair questions to debate. But neither party should lose sight of what just went down.

Here are the facts: National Republicans and outside groups were forced to spend more than $3 million to defeat a Democratic candidate in a congressional district that went for Donald Trump by 22 points just a year ago. 

Republican Matt Van Epps won by roughly nine percentage points, which means first-time Democratic candidate Aftyn Behn moved the needle in her direction by 13 points. 

To put that in perspective, 23 House Republicans won in 2024 with a margin of less than 10 points. A 13-point swing nationally next November would mean every one of them would lose re-election if Democrats continue this upward trend. 

“This is one of the biggest flashing red light warning signs we’ve seen yet for Republicans,” wrote GOP communications veteran Matt Whitlock, adding that it could portend “a blue wave far worse than 2018.”

The special election was part of a larger trend we have seen over the last year in special elections. Democratic gains this year in races such as those for governor of New Jersey and Virginia have outperformed former Vice President Kamala Harris’s margins by 16 to 23 points. 

So what does this mean for Democrats now?  

First, the map should expand. If a progressive can be competitive in a deep-red district — one the GOP should not have had to invest in at all — then Democrats have far more potential pickup opportunities as they work to retake the House. And a larger majority matters because it enables legislation to pass, investigations to proceed, and minimizes the effects of any election-related challenges. 

Second, affordability is the message.  This does not mean the exact word must be used; it shouldn’t. But the theme must stay central to the candidate’s message. Tennessee polling going into the Dec. 2 election showed the economy is the top issue for 38% of Tennessee voters, followed by housing affordability at 15% and healthcare at 13%. 

Housing costs are affordability. Healthcare costs, which are set to massively soar thanks to the failure of Republicans to extend the Obamacare premium tax credits, are also affordability. 

Third, anger at Trump remains potent. Matt Van Epps was not a scandal-ridden, deeply flawed Republican candidate. His major liability was being tied to a hugely unpopular President whose approval rating is 36%. That will continue dragging down Republican candidates until Trump leaves office.

When Democrats are outperforming their 2024 special-election margins by more than 20 points just a year later, it’s time for little Mike Johnson to start measuring the drapes in the minority leader’s office.

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Ask Jen

“I live in a deep red area. How do I promote democracy without arguments?“

— Sharon W., Englewood, Fla.

Hi Sharon,

Promoting democracy comes in so many forms. It can look like a small protest with other people who share similar values to you. It can look like staying informed and reading not just one news source or article about a topic, but reading many! It looks like calling your Congress person to discuss issues you would like to see addressed. Conversations with people you don’t agree with can be challenging, but instead of thinking of it as an argument, think about it as a way for you to learn more like a research project. Sometimes you just need to let someone know that not everyone thinks like they do or that there is more than one side to an issue.

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