Virginia’s gubernatorial election is a referendum on the government shutdown

Virginia’s Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears kicked off the final, frantic sprint of her gubernatorial campaign last week while standing behind a podium emblazoned with the word “SIDESHOW.”

The messaging was intended to be a critique of her Democratic opponent, former Rep. Abigail Spanberger. (The words “Spanberger’s” and “Session” were comparatively much smaller than the all-caps “SIDESHOW.”) But like so many of Earle-Sears’ unforced political errors this campaign season, the awkward, Veep-esque photo-op became yet another example of the Virginia Republican Party’s slide from power player to political punchline.

Republicans hoped President Donald Trump’s strong 2024 performance would bode well for Earle-Sears’ chances of becoming the first woman to hold the state’s governorship. Instead, Trump’s government shutdown led to widespread fury among Virginia’s more than 320,000 struggling federal workers. Now, Earle-Sears is performing the worst of all GOP statewide candidates and trailing Spanberger by roughly seven percentage points. Ouch.

Tuesday’s election is nothing less than a referendum on Trump’s shutdown and his disdain for the federal workers who make up the backbone of the Commonwealth’s economy. Virginia’s Trump-enabling Republican leaders have earned the drubbing voters are likely about to hand them.

It’s hard to overstate how badly Gov. Glenn Youngkin and other state Republican leaders misjudged the public response to Trump’s war on federal workers. Back in March, Youngkin seemingly forgot that his state led the nation in total federal workers when he cheered on Trump’s mass firings of government employees. Of course, that was before Trump’s firings sent Virginia’s unemployment rate climbing for seven months in a row, to 3.6% in September. That’s the highest since August 2021, when the Covid-19 pandemic was still upending the job market.

The pain of Trump’s layoffs is spread across Virginia’s 95 counties, but it’s especially noticeable in areas such as Washington, D.C.-adjacent Fairfax County, where unemployment spiked 28% over 2024. Nearby Alexandria saw the number of jobless residents rise 35% in the wake of mass federal firings. The ongoing shutdown has only made matters worse now that paychecks have stopped for some federal workers.

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Mike Johnson gives away the Republican game on SNAP and the shutdown October 30, 2025 / 05:00

Earle-Sears made no friends among unemployed civil servants when she was caught downplaying Trump’s mass firings in leaked audio earlier this year. “How many here have ever lost a job?” Earle-Sears is heard telling a private gathering. “Oh, you mean it’s not unusual? It happens to everybody all the time? Okay. The media is making it out to be this huge, huge thing. And I don’t understand why.”

Earle-Sears’ stunning admission that she just didn’t understand why people would be upset about losing their jobs offered Spanberger with perhaps her most potent campaign messaging. Not only do Republicans not care about what’s happening to you, they don’t even understand it.

For many Virginians, Earle-Sears’ out-of-touch remarks solidified the image of the GOP as hopelessly disconnected from the economic suffering of regular Americans. Virginia voters are so furious at the apathy of Republican leaders that it’s now a central issue in the campaign. A Washington Post/Schar poll published in early October found that being “Anti-Republican/Trump/MAGA” was the second-most important issue for likely Virginia voters. Only concerns about the skyrocketing cost of living ranked higher.

Spanberger has focused heavily on the economic turmoil facing Virginians since the campaign’s earliest days, and she’s finishing the race by staying “laser-focused” on kitchen-table economic issues, even as Earle-Sears and state Republicans attempt to derail her messaging with desperate, last-minute negative ad blitzes peddling hateful anti-transgender rhetoric and focusing on Democratic attorney general candidate Jay Jones’ tasteless, but private text messages.

Voters may dislike Spanberger on individual issues, but she’s also the only candidate in the race who is actually talking about how to fix the economic mess Youngkin and Earle-Sears created. She’s the only adult in the room.

A Spanberger victory is the key Virginia Democrats need to move forward with three major constitutional amendments they plan to put to voters next year — provided Spanberger’s electoral coattails preserve the party’s slim majorities in the state Senate and House of Delegates.

The amendments, which enshrine abortion rights and marriage equality in the state constitution and restore the right to vote to former felons, are all popular among voters. Earle-Sears opposes them all, even though her anti-gay, anti-choice, anti-mercy views have been out of step with most Virginians for years. If Spanberger wins, she would be on deck to lead one of the most transformative periods in Virginia history.

Virginians have spent years watching Youngkin and his ramshackle Republican Party conspicuously fail to lead. Worse still, Youngkin seems to delight in defending the sweeping job losses and Trump-inspired economic turmoil that caused his state to lose its coveted spot on CNBC’s “Top State for Business” ranking. Faced with that kind of deep dysfunction, Spanberger represents a refreshing chance to bring competence and compassion back to Richmond. Virginia’s voters are ready to seize their historic opportunity. Spanberger is, too.