There are few parts of the presidency that Donald Trump appears to enjoy more than hosting world leaders at the White House. Between the allure of showing powerful people his increasingly golden Oval Office and presiding over lavish formal dinners in the evening, the optics of statesmanship likely hold more attraction to Trump than the slog of governing. His latest honoree: Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia, who returns to Washington on Tuesday for the first time since 2018.
In rolling out the red carpet, Trump clearly intends to get something in exchange.
The warm welcome Trump is arranging — including displaying Saudi flags at the White House — marks the conclusion of what little remained of the pariah status surrounding the crown prince, known colloquially as MBS. In rolling out the red carpet for the man who U.S. intelligence services concluded had ordered the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, Trump clearly intends to get something in exchange. (MBS has denied involvement in Khashoggi’s slaying inside a Saudi consulate in 2018.) But the friendship that Trump is attempting to purchase comes at a much higher cost than the U.S. president should be willing to pay.
Trump’s overriding interest in Saudi Arabia is the abundant oil wealth the kingdom has spent the better part of the past century exploiting — and, specifically, this president’s desire to be seen as a dealmaker overseeing the flow of Saudi riches into America. On his first overseas visit of his second term, Trump flew to Riyadh, where he touted $600 billion in investments that he said the crown prince had promised to direct toward the U.S. Ahead of Tuesday’s visit, Trump said he’d sell the kingdom the F-35 fighter jets it has been seeking, despite concerns that their advanced technology would be passed on to China.
But the kingdom’s massive sovereign wealth fund, which the royal family directly controls, is not infinite. Earlier this month, the sovereign fund sold off several of its U.S. stocks, reducing its holdings to the lowest in four years. While the crown prince has focused on modernizing and diversifying the Saudi economy, MBS has also been looking for more foreign investments in domestic Saudi projects. Here’s how Politico framed his efforts ahead of the visit:
Saudi Arabia’s high interest rates and uneven progress on massive infrastructure projects — including an ill-conceived linear city — have dented returns for the Public Investment Fund, its $1 trillion sovereign wealth vehicle. And lower oil prices have contributed to softer profits at Saudi Aramco, a state-owned oil business and major force in its domestic economy. At an investment conference in Riyadh last month, Saudi officials underscored that the future of the country’s development will be increasingly reliant on private sources of capital. And they’ve aggressively courted U.S. firms in a bid for more foreign investment.
Accordingly, the prince’s trip coincides with a Saudi investor summit being held at the Kennedy Center in Washington. It has been billed as a follow-up to the investments that Trump was quick to celebrate in March. But as The New York Times reported in the spring, the real number was closer to $283 billion, less than half of what Trump said had been promised.
The Times’ follow-up reporting in May found that of the agreements the White House highlighted, “several were already in the works before the president took office” and some were “were U.S. companies putting money into Saudi ventures, rather than Saudi investment in American companies.” (It’s not clear how much of the discrepancy is due to Trumpian hyperbole versus a lack of follow-through from the Saudis.)
Beyond that, Trump’s embrace of MBS skims past the ways the countries’ goals are often at cross-purposes. Trump wants America to disengage from the Middle East, ideally in the wake of an enduring peace agreement between Israel and its Arab neighbors. But the Saudis aren’t particularly keen to sign onto the diplomatic agreements, known as the Abraham Accords, negotiated during Trump’s first term.
Trump appears to view the U.S.-Saudi alliance in personal terms rather than what best benefits America. They’re also gunning for a strengthened defense pact similar to the one Trump unilaterally extended to Qatar in the spring that promises America will retaliate in the event of an attack. As was the case with Asia and Europe during the Cold War, MBS knows the American security umbrella would give the kingdom more flexibility to focus on his domestic priorities. That promised foreign involvement is the kind of arrangement Trump has railed against in the past, but MBS might arrive bearing enough gifts to persuade Trump that the current arrangement is a great one. There’s no realpolitik reasoning behind Trump’s affinity for MBS, who, according to Politico, he speaks with on the phone weekly. Just as there’s been no public wrestling with the morality of embracing the person the CIA concluded ordered Jamal Khashoggi’s killing. As with many of his relationships, Trump appears to view the U.S.-Saudi alliance in personal terms rather than what best benefits America. The New York Times recently reported that the Trump Organization is “in talks that could bring a Trump-branded property to one of Saudi Arabia’s largest government-owned real estate developments.” The kingdom had already provided a huge investment in Trump son-in-law Jared Kushner’s private equity firm. It’s clear then that MBS has managed that relationship well. And if there’s one thing world leaders have learned about Trump, it’s that paying tribute, whether in the form of flattery or lavish presents, often reaps dividends with the deeply transactional occupant of the White House.
Hayes Brown is a writer and editor for MS NOW. He focuses on politics and policymaking at the federal level, including Congress and the White House. 
