Just in time for the unofficial start of summer, Speaker Mike Johnson was able to cajole his members into passing President Donald Trump’s “big, beautiful bill.” It took a great deal of finagling, plus a huge assist from the president, who warned, threatened and demanded that House Republicans get it done.
The megabill now moves to the Senate, where some Republicans are already speaking out about the changes they want made. This means we are likely going to see a lot of haggling and dealmaking over the next couple of months ahead of a self-imposed July 4 deadline. GOP dissent aside, Democrats may not ultimately be able to stop the bill’s final passage. But they do now have a small window of opportunity to define the legislation, and Trump’s party, ahead of next year’s midterms.
GOP dissent aside, Democrats may not ultimately be able to stop the bill’s final passage.
So far, Democrats have struggled to land on a clear message of opposition. And as bad as Trump’s approval ratings are, the Democrats are also polling at depressing lows.
This enormous bill includes some great messaging opportunities for Republicans. They will be sure to highlight the proposed tax cuts, increased funding for national defense and a surge of resources for deportation and border-control projects. Moderate Republicans from blue states must be especially pleased that the SALT (state and local tax) deduction has been increased from $10,000 to $40,000 for those making less than $500,000. (The SALT tax deduction is most meaningful in areas with high local taxes, including New York and New Jersey.) The current bill also gives Trump a chance to deliver on his no-tax-on-tips campaign promise (something that former Vice President Kamala Harris also ran on), and many families could benefit from an increased child tax credit of $2,500.
The Democrats are sure to hit back by spotlighting the bill’s nearly $1 trillion in cuts affecting the nation’s largest safety net programs, including Medicaid and food stamps. The bill also ends many green energy tax credits, and will repeal several other climate change-related aspects of the Inflation Reduction Act, including a $7,500 tax credit for electric vehicles. But I’m still not convinced that Democrats will be able to effectively counter the GOP using budget talking points alone.
However, they can still turn things around.
Now is the time for Democrats to refine their message to the American public. In politics, one of the first things you want to do is define your opponent before they define you.
Without a so-called “head of the party,” this task is tougher, but it will also allow for the best ideas to rise to the top. Right now, some of the loudest voices have been some of the most ineffective leaders.
Just look at California Gov. Gavin Newsom. Newsom is the Democratic governor of a state that has a dominant Democratic state legislature, and Democratic mayors leading the majority of its big cities. And yet, what has he done on affordable housing or other big Democratic priorities? Not much. Instead, he is trying to build national name recognition for a presidential run by palling around with MAGA insiders like Steve Bannon and taking centrist stances on polarizing issues like trans student athletes. And getting grilled by Bill Maher.
Trump loves to talk about what he wants to do. Why can’t the Democrats use the same playbook? Of course they need to look like they’re doing everything they can to stop the megabill — though in reality they probably can’t.
They should hammer the GOP on easy targets. Take, for example, the FAA.
So instead, they should hammer the GOP on easy targets. Take, for example, the Federal Aviation Administration. While Republicans are fighting among themselves in D.C. this summer, Americans will be taking to the not-so-friendly skies. I can think of no bigger backdrop for a discussion on the failures of the Department of Government Efficiency, aka DOGE.
And, to be clear, this should not be about Elon Musk. Musk may have taken a chain saw to federal agencies, but he did so with Trump’s permission. And Trump should own the results. (This is even more true now that Musk is at least publicly pulling back on DOGE activities as he tries to reassure angry Tesla stockholders.)
DOGE’s mission was supposed to be efficiency. So why didn’t it start by fixing the FAA’s antiquated computer equipment? Instead, it moved first to layoff staffers across the embattled agency including specialists in roles related to aviation safety.
Obviously, the FAA’s troubles did not begin with Trump. But Democrats should focus on what’s happening now. This Trump administration is treating people and our air travel safety like a formula on a spreadsheet. With recent polls showing American confidence in air safety is dipping, air safety is a simple and easy talking point.
And yes, that is just one small example. But there are many, many others. If Democrats can’t find a leader right now, they should at least find a message. For my money Michigan’s freshman senator, Elissa Slotkin, has nailed it when talking about her “war plan.” The former CIA analyst says the way to change her party’s “weak and woke” is to go with a “no-bullshit” approach. That’s exactly the energy Democrats need to harness as the humidity descends on the Hill.
