Sen. John Thune, R-S.D., is poised to be the new Senate majority leader next year and already has a major challenge on his hands. Namely: How many of President-elect Donald Trump’s Cabinet picks will his caucus confirm? It’s a question that must be asked, given the ludicrous figures Trump has tapped for some of the most important positions in the nation.
Last week, Trump named then-Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., as his pick for attorney general, Fox News host Pete Hegseth to run the Pentagon and anti-vaccine activist Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to run the Department of Health and Human Services. His outrageous choices are a perfect first chance for the Senate to signal its independence from the White House. In theory, this should be a layup, the easiest test for the Republican majority to pass. That there’s any question Republicans will rise to the occasion emphasizes the shadow that looms over the next four years.
Other nominees, though, are so far beyond the pale that confirming them would be an embarrassment for every senator who votes ‘aye.’
At the heart of the matter is the Senate’s constitutional duty to advise and consent to presidential appointments. Some of Trump’s picks would be disastrous on a policy level, but at least neatly fit within the GOP worldview and display some competence. Such people would include Trump’s chosen EPA administrator, New York’s Lee Zeldin, and his pick to become secretary of the interior, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum.
Others, though, are so far beyond the pale that confirming them would be an embarrassment for every senator who votes “aye.” Trump’s selection of Gaetz sent the sharpest shockwave through Congress, given how many members, including Republican members, actively dislike the bomb-throwing, media-obsessed firebrand. He was also reportedly the only one of Trump’s possible choices who was willing to go all-in on the president-elect’s plans for retribution against his political enemies. (That’s not exactly a strong reason for Republicans to back his ascension, given Gaetz’s proven willingness to attack members of his own party.)
All of Trump’s nominees will need 50 votes in the Senate (plus Vice President-elect JD Vance’s support in the event of a tie) to be confirmed for their roles. Republicans are set to control at least 52 seats in January. Assuming united opposition from Democrats, the GOP would only be able to lose support from three to four members of its caucus before any nomination fails. Based on the quotes from Senate Republicans to The Wall Street Journal, I’d be surprised if a majority of senators would hold a door for Gaetz, let alone put him in charge of the Department of Justice.
There was less immediate skepticism, though, toward some of Trump’s other outrageous selections. Kennedy earned some side-eye from moderate Republicans based on his more outlandish claims about infectious diseases and his clear lack of knowledge about how HHS functions, but there were no promises to vote against him. NBC News likewise reported surprise among GOP senators at Hegseth’s nod to become defense secretary, but as of Friday, there’d been no outright calls for him to remove his name from consideration.
It seems as of now that any final vote count will reflect how much grilling some of Trump’s nominees will face during their respective confirmation hearings. Aside from being obnoxious and widely disliked, Gaetz apparently timed his abrupt resignation Wednesday to prevent the release of a potentially scathing report from the House Ethics Committee into whether he engaged in sexual misconduct and illicit drug use. Whether the committee’s findings become part of the Senate vetting may become the subject of a cross-Capitol struggle: While some GOP senators have said they’d like to see the evidence against Gaetz, Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., has voiced opposition to releasing it.
These potential stumbling blocks are part of why Trump has been calling on the Senate to let him simply make a slew of recess appointments.
While Kennedy’s antics are well known and disqualifying, it’s his pro-abortion rights stance that has former Vice President Mike Pence calling on the GOP to reject him. There is an alleged sexual assault in Hegseth’s past, alongside the fact that he failed when being vetted to take part in President Joe Biden’s inauguration. And other nominees like former Democratic lawmaker Tulsi Gabbard, who’s now in line to become director of national intelligence, will likely also be subject to harsh questioning.
These potential stumbling blocks are part of why Trump has been calling on the Senate to let him simply make a slew of recess appointments. These one-year appointments require both houses of Congress to be out of session for 10 days or more. The Supreme Court ruled in 2014 that then-President Barack Obama’s attempts to dodge a GOP blockade of nominees during a shorter recess wouldn’t fly. Accordingly, since neither the House nor the Senate can adjourn for more than three days without concurrence of the other body, we’ve had years where one side or the other would hold “pro-forma sessions” every fourth day to prevent recess appointments. Thune has told reporters he wants to go through regular order with these pending nominations. He also noted in a Fox News interview on Thursday that the same Republicans who might be inclined to vote against Trump’s nominees would also be unlikely to support recessing to allow them to slide into position. But he caveated that desire based on whether Democrats use the filibuster rule to slow the confirmation process down to a crawl. There’s also the matter of picking and choosing battles against Trump over a long four years. Even before future calls for legislation, there are still more administration selections to come. There are reports that longtime lackey Kash Patel might be up for FBI director. Rolling Stone quoted a Trump transition team member as saying the lack of concern for viability is a purposeful flex from the boss: “He wants to bend them to his will until they snap in half and then thank him for the privilege.” Any resistance from elected officials is then set to be a marathon, not a sprint. Still, it should be a gimme that Thune and his colleagues choose putting their own judgment before Trump’s and reject his least qualified picks. It should be an easy way for them to show some spine as a separate branch of government. And should Trump attempt to do an end-run around them to appoint his choices anyway, well, that’s a bridge that will be crossed later. For them to forswear their duty, without even pantomiming interest in fulfilling their responsibility to block dangerous fools from power, would be a distressing signal of what lies in wait for the country.
Hayes Brown is a writer and editor for MS NOW. He focuses on politics and policymaking at the federal level, including Congress and the White House. 
