Washington, D.C., is unique in many positive ways, from being the only city established by the Constitution to having the world’s largest obelisk. But recently our nation’s capital became distinctive for an unwanted reason: a steep increase in homicide.
The homicide rate fell sharply in many major cities in 2023, with New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Houston and Phoenix all experiencing declines of more than 10%. Federal data through September suggest the national homicide count dropped by as much as 15%, which would be the largest single-year reduction in the history of modern record-keeping.
Homicides spiked by 35% in the district, and overall violent crime rose, as well — by 39% — even as it largely declined elsewhere.
The picture looks very different in Washington. Homicides spiked by 35% in the district, and overall violent crime rose, as well — by 39% — even as it largely declined elsewhere. This discouraging trend was punctuated by several high-profile incidents, including the carjacking of Rep. Henry Cuellar, D-Texas. The rise in violence has sparked painful memories of the early 1990s, when the city, ravaged by the crack epidemic, was labeled “America’s murder capital.” At a congressional hearing in October, a top city official called the district’s crime challenges “a crisis,” and a local council member has suggested deploying the National Guard.
Why is our capital city bucking the national trend? It’s impossible to say with absolute precision, but there are several plausible explanations. In our view, the key culprits include the district’s depleted police force, bifurcated justice system, dreadful truancy rates and extended pandemic hangover.
First, the recent increases in homicides in Washington, as well as carjackings and certain other crimes, have coincided with a shrinking police force. The police department also experienced turnover at the top of last year, with the retirement of its chief and the hiring of a new one.
In March, The Washington Post noted that each officer was responding to 23% more calls, with the average response time for the highest-priority calls taking a minute and 40 seconds slower than in 2019.
When police staffing is stretched, officers may struggle simply to respond to calls for service, leaving little time to build the community relationships essential to public trust. And without such trust, residents are less likely to report crime and serve as witnesses. Washington police solved just 45% of homicides in 2023, the lowest rate in more than 15 years and below the national average.
Washington remains one of the U.S. cities with the most law enforcement officers per residents, but this includes many federal officers assigned to guard specific buildings, and many commuters and tourists are in Washington and do not count as residents. More important, other jurisdictions, like San Antonio, have achieved better crime reduction results by blending law enforcement with personnel from other agencies and focusing efforts on communities most vulnerable to violence and victimization.
Struggles involving Washington’s crime lab, which was shuttered in 2021 after a spate of errors, have not helped. The loss of the lab, which recently regained partial accreditation, means that, in contracting out its forensic analyses, Washington must compete against other jurisdictions seeking to process evidence. Delays in forensic testing slow the wheels of justice and have led to the dismissal of some cases in the district.
Yet another challenge is the hybrid local-federal structure of Washington’s government. While the district runs its own police department, federal officials control almost every other part of the criminal justice system, from prosecutors to courts, prisons and offender supervision. Among other things, this works against the coordination and collaboration that are essential for successful violence reduction.
On one front, local officials have criticized the U.S. attorney for the district, Matthew M. Graves, for declining to prosecute a large proportion of those arrested by police, saying such a record fuels a lack of accountability among repeat offenders. Graves, in turn, said he has prosecuted most violent felonies and blamed his stat sheet on the crime lab’s troubles, problems with arrests and thin resources.
For their part, Washington officials have struggled to execute a consistent strategy to fight crime. One initiative that sought to provide intensive resources to those considered most at risk of committing violence or becoming victims has stumbled, while two anti-violence units within city government went months without permanent leadership.
More broadly, Washington appears to have struggled more than other cities with the pandemic’s aftermath. While all cities suffered impacts, Washington has a larger proportion of remote workers (25%) than any of the states. This means fewer people on the street and more closed storefronts, which may make would-be criminals believe there will be fewer witnesses to their acts. This explanation is backed by research showing many prospective perpetrators will commit crimes only if they perceive suitable targets and the absence of “capable guardians” who might intervene either physically or by making police calls and serving as witnesses.
Struggles involving Washington’s crime lab, which was shuttered in 2021 after a spate of errors, have not helped.
Washington kept courts and schools closed because of Covid longer than many other cities, leading to backlogs in court cases, making the prospect of accountability for crimes less likely. And following a period of remote learning, school attendance has been slow to recover. In 2023, chronic absenteeism remained stunningly high in Washington, at 43% (well above the national figure), while truancy clocked in at 37%.
When young people are disconnected from school and work, gang activity and criminal behavior too often fill the void. Illustrating this dynamic, one study found evidence-based truancy prevention programs can reduce violent offending. That’s much needed, as carjacking in Washington, which rose for the sixth straight year in 2023, reaching 859 incidents, is one crime that appears to be increasingly committed by the young.
Of course, violent crimes are typically committed by adults. Like many other cities across the U.S., recent estimates show that most victims (92%) and suspects (88%) involved in district criminal homicides and nonfatal shootings are Black men ages 18 to 34.
And, as in other cities, violence is highly concentrated in Washington, with studies showing that about 200 people are driving a majority of gun violence incidents at any one point in time. Given that, microtargeting neighborhoods using surges in law enforcement personnel, community members trained as violence interrupters and other interventions could yield benefits. This approach is paying dividends in cities like Dallas and Tucson, Arizona, where police focus more on deterring serious crime and building relationships, rather than minor traffic or drug possession violations.
There are some reasons for optimism in Washington. Last month, Council Chairman Phil Mendelson introduced legislation to fully implement the city’s Gun Violence Reduction Plan. It would provide a sound framework for delivering proven interventions to high-crime areas, including problem-oriented policing, credible messengers and life coaching. The bill also would allow the police department to hire civilians to help with crime investigations, freeing up officers for more serious tasks.
Washington would also do well to embrace the recommendations of the Council on Criminal Justice Violent Crime Working Group and examine a strategic, multiyear plan for violence reduction adopted in San Antonio. This plan involves input from academic experts and the community, and it includes units consisting of personnel from various agencies, such as police, code enforcement, homeless services and parks and recreation, with specific goals assigned to each to improve high-crime areas.
All Americans have a stake in a safer Washington, D.C., from its 713,000 residents to the 21.7 million domestic tourists who visit every year. Accomplishing this will require monumental efforts both inside and outside the criminal justice system. We should expect nothing less when it comes to delivering on the most fundamental mission of government.
