It’s time to accept reality about the 2024 electorate: Younger Latino voters, a key part of President Joe Biden’s 2020 winning coalition and his party’s 2022 midterm success, are no longer firmly Democratic. But they’re not becoming firmly Republican, either. Where these voters end up on Election Day — not only whom they vote for, but whether they vote at all — will be crucial in deciding the presidential race.
New Latino voters “are less Democratic than more established voters and less supportive of the President,” concludes a new data briefing about the 2024 Latino vote from BSP Research and UnidosUS, the nation’s largest Hispanic advocacy organization. “However, they remain largely suspicious of the GOP.” Most of these new voters are young, and “younger voters are SIGNIFICANTLY more independent and less Democratic or Republican than more established voters.”
Such shifts are significant, considering that there are millions of new and/or young voters out there for both Biden and Donald Trump.
According to this study, Latino voters under 39 years old “are over-represented in every category of independence [from party affiliations]. And it is younger voters who dominate the categories of Democrats shifting right (55% 39 and under) and Republicans shifting left (61% 39 and under).”
Such shifts are significant, considering that there are millions of new and/or young voters out there for both Biden and Donald Trump.
As of January, the Pew Research Center estimated there are 36.2 million eligible Latino voters. That is a 15% share of the entire electorate, up from 13.6% in 2020 and 11.9% in 2016. Of those 36.2 million, 31% — over 11 million voters – are 18 to 29 years old. While Pew didn’t report a 2024 percentage for voters in the 30-39 age group, it did note the 30-49 age group accounts for 37% of all eligible Latino voters, which would translate to about 13.4 million eligible voters. Latinos still have the highest rate of first-time voters, and if younger voters are more open to shifting their preferences, as the UnidosUS data suggests, winning over these voters can deliver the White House.
“People were being taken for granted. So you add a couple of generations for that, and that means newer voters are further and further removed from identifying with what might have been whatever you call the norm in the past,” Clarissa Martinez De Castro, vice president of the Latino Vote Initiative for UnidosUS, told me this week.
The growing independent streak among younger Latino voters also dispels (yet again) the monolithic myth that Latinos are die-hard Democrats. But Republicans shouldn’t rejoice too quickly. The same BSP Research/UnidosUS polling finds that 51% of Latinos think Democrats care a great deal about their community, while just 25% think the same of Republicans. And as I wrote this month, Republicans have slashed Latino outreach efforts even as the general election gets underway.
Despite headlines tending to overhype a 2024 Latino shift to the right, historical voting patterns prove that Latinos are still persuadable. Over the last 11 presidential elections, Democratic support among Latinos has peaked as high as 72% in 1996 (Bill Clinton) and as low as 56% in 1980 (Jimmy Carter). For Republicans, Latino support reached an all-time high of 40% in 2004 (George W. Bush) and an all-time low of 21% in 1996 (Bob Dole).
Democrats can’t be satisfied with just keeping Latinos from voting GOP.
Broadly speaking, there has been a baseline 66%-33% Democratic-Republican split among Latino voters. For Democrats, staying around that ratio is beneficial. For Republicans, increasing their share two or three percentage points would lead to more electoral success.
“I think what you are seeing right now is a combination of trends that have been there and are more visible right now because of razor-thin margins, because of assumptions made about Latino voters,” Martinez De Castro said.
But Democrats can’t be satisfied with just keeping Latinos from voting GOP. Those voters may choose to not to vote at all, and there is no question Biden won’t become a second-term president if first-time and young Latino voters don’t go to the polls on Election Day.
“I’m not worried about young people voting for Trump,” Democratic strategist Chuck Rocha told NBC News last month. “I’m worried about them staying home.” There are plenty of opportunities for the Biden campaign to encourage turnout among young, independent-minded Latinos. In the swing state of Arizona, for example, a GOP-led immigration measure could energize an electorate that is 25% Latino. It also doesn’t hurt that Rep. Ruben Gallego, the Democratic candidate for the Senate, could be the state’s first Latino senator if he defeats Republican Kari Lake. So far, Gallego is polling better against Lake than Biden is against Trump. Still, it’s hard to determine whether Arizona and its large Latino share of new voters can translate in states like Nevada (22%), Texas (34%) and Florida (22%), all states where polls show Trump leading Biden comfortably. This is where the independence of young Latino voters could play against Biden. According to the UnidosUS data presented last week, new voters see health care as a standout issue, along with the economy and inflation. How the president approaches these voters may need some work. “It’s like the perfect storm of things for people to be looking at. Democrats, not just now but for a while, have struggled to connect with voters on economic issues,” Martinez De Castro said. “And that’s top of mind for Latinos right now.” The Biden campaign seems to already know this, and it was no surprise that outreach efforts to the Latino community were happening earlier this year. Yet how the president approaches these voters may need some work. “I need you back,” Biden told Latino supporters in March. But data suggests that young Latino voters never started with Democrats in the first place; as the UnidosUS report puts it, they were already skeptical “based on their views of the parties as institutions.” They are never going “back” to Biden because they were never with him in the first place. “People assume Latinos are going to show up to the party, whether or not they bothered sending an invitation,” Martinez De Castro said. “You want to win over these voters, you have to reach out to them. You can’t just assume.” Now young Latino voters are shattering those assumptions. How both campaigns react to this new reality could tip the balance in the fall.
Julio Ricardo Varela is the founder of "The Latino Newsletter" and co-editor of "Pressing Issues from Free Press." 
