Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia spent his entire political career, spanning more than 40 years, as a member of the Democratic Party. That run ended on Friday, when he announced that he was leaving the party to become an independent. But though Manchin is ending a decades-long association, this news feels less like a shocking twist than an acknowledgement of the status quo between Manchin and a party where he’d worn out his welcome.
As is ever the case with Manchin, who has made centrism the core of his senatorial persona, he blamed both sides of the aisle for his decision. “Our national politics are broken and neither party is willing to compromise to find common ground,” he declared in a statement. “To stay true to myself and remain committed to put country before party, I have decided to register as an independent with no party affiliation and continue to fight for America’s sensible majority.”
Overly self-important rhetoric aside, there’s some truth to Manchin’s words.
Overly self-important rhetoric aside, there’s some truth to Manchin’s words. While the GOP is the party that has shifted the most since he first joined the Senate in 2010, some of the coal-loving West Virginian’s views have been an increasingly tough fit within the Democratic Party. He’s a vestige of a period when conservative Democrats like the House’s Blue Dog Coalition were deemed necessary for the party’s long-term survival. But their power has waned significantly in recent years and Manchin has increasingly stood apart from even other red-state centrists like Montana Sen. John Tester. He’s further frustrated other Democrats with his shifting stances during key negotiations and his fetishization of bipartisanship.
Manchin told Vox back in 2021 that he’d never considered fully jumping ranks and joining the GOP, “because I know I can change more from where I’m at. And I still believe in the principles of the Democratic Party that I grew up with.” He’s also confirmed that he’s rebuffed numerous attempts from his Republican colleagues to join the dark side. So, despite leaving the party officially, he will still caucus with the Democrats for the remainder of his term and retain his chairmanship of the Senate Energy Committee. Manchin now becomes the fourth independent in the caucus alongside Bernie Sanders of Vermont, Angus King of Maine, and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona.
Moreover, and more important for the timing of his announcement, the politics in Manchin’s home state have been shifting rapidly as well. For years, he has kept the national party at arm’s length in order to survive politically in West Virginia (let’s not forget that he released an ad where he shot a copy of a cap and trade bill when he first ran for the Senate in 2010). Every decision he’s made since arriving in Washington — including his defense of the filibuster over expanded voting rights and defense of coal — has been done through the lens of local politics, for better or for worse. But no state in the country swung faster from loyally Democratic to loyally Republican, with former President Donald Trump winning blowout victories in the last two elections.
Rather than go through the meat grinder of a tough Senate campaign, Manchin last year announced that he would be giving up his seat, despite having already registered to run. Republicans have nominated Jim Justice, West Virginia’s governor, to try to win the open seat — but Manchin’s shift may have changed the calculus. June 1 was the deadline for a candidate to change their party affiliation if they want to appear on the ballot in the fall. The deadline to run for either Senate or governor, the job that Manchin held before heading becoming a senator and had considered running for again in 2020, isn’t until Aug. 1. The reality is that having an “I” next to his name doesn’t change who Manchin is, and has been, for a long time now. Compared to other options, Manchin’s choice to become an independent is somehow the least destructive route he could take. Unlike Sinema, who registered as an independent in 2022 after wildly swinging across the political spectrum, Manchin has remained rooted in place ideologically. Likewise, he’s spent a long time flirting with this decision, having said as much last year. And it’s better for him to either try to stay in the Senate while keeping the same positions, or run for an open gubernatorial seat, than to pull the trigger on an almost certainly disastrous third-party presidential run — a prospect he’d flirted with earlier this year. Should he run to retain his seat, that’s one less guaranteed layup for Republicans trying to reclaim the majority. And I’d rather see Manchin’s support for the filibuster neutralized with a more solid Democratic majority next term than have Justice there to either support Trump or block President Joe Biden depending on who wins in November. And while Manchin has said he supports the Democratic nominee for governor, that was conveniently a few days before he left the party. Though I’ve often slammed Manchin’s record as a senator, either decision would be a net positive for both him and Democrats. The reality is that having an “I” next to his name doesn’t change who Manchin is, and has been, for a long time now. It merely makes what was once subtext into text — and gives more progressive Democrats room to define what the party will look like in the future.
Hayes Brown is a writer and editor for MS NOW. He focuses on politics and policymaking at the federal level, including Congress and the White House. 
