5 questions the Texas Democratic primary will answer

Every few years, Texas Democrats get their hopes up.

Whether it’s a surge in voter turnout, encouraging polls or a charismatic candidate, the beleaguered state party starts to think it can end a statewide losing streak that dates back to 1994, only to lose again.

Democrats are feeling optimistic again as they head to the polls for Tuesday night’s primary.

Already, the face-off between Dallas-area Rep. Jasmine Crockett and state Rep. James Talarico has spurred record-breaking early voting turnout. And with Republicans locked in a contentious and costly three-way primary, Democrats are seeing their best shot since Beto O’Rourke came within three points of unseating incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, in 2018.

But first, the party will need to fix its own house. Supporters of Crockett and Talarico have had flare-ups over questions about race and electability that could undermine who wins the nomination.

The primary won’t just decide the nominee, though. It’ll also help answer five underlying questions that have been raised so far about the party and the upcoming midterm elections.

Follow MS NOW’s midterm elections live blog for the latest updates and analysis on today’s biggest races across Texas, North Carolina and Arkansas.

What is driving the voting surge?

Texas Democrats have seen record-breaking surges in early voting over the last two weeks. And while strategists on the ground say they have seen a clear uptick in Democratic voters, the more interesting question is who is behind the surge.

Because Texas doesn’t register voters by party, it’s difficult to make any firm assumptions about turnout in this race until the polls close and analysts can dig into the data. Some of the limited samples so far suggest this early voting spike may not reflect an expansion of brand-new registrants, but rather lapsed Democratic primary voters who have been reactivated by the competitive race.

Democrats have maintained for years that Texas is more of “a non-voting state” than a red one. Tonight could be a test of that theory.

Geography can also provide early indicators of where Democrats may be gaining ground. In January, traditionally ruby-red Tarrant County flipped in a special election in favor of Democratic union leader Taylor Rehmet. And Democratic County Chairwoman Allison Campolo said the momentum has only picked up, describing “unprecedented optimism” from voters who are coming out in droves.

“The huge majority of our voters historically have been older people and white people. They make up the majority of the voters,” Campolo said. “We’re seeing a shift into more voters of color. We’re seeing a shift to a lot more younger voters … and seeing an increase in the people who are voting for the first time.”

In deep-red Robertson County, one long-time poll worker said she’s seen brand-new faces at the polls this year

In deep-red Robertson County, one long-time poll worker said she’s seen brand-new faces at the polls this year, noting Democratic turnout has been “better than it normally is.”

Democrats, of course, hope the surge in Tarrant County, as well as in other areas, is a bellwether for the rest of the state. Still, analysts say it can be easy to misread the numbers too early.

“The biggest predictor of whether a person will vote is whether they’ve voted before,” said Brandon Rottinghaus, a political scientist with the University of Houston. He cautioned, however, that history shows only “a loose statistical relationship” between turnout in a primary election and a general.

What’s up with the polls?

Democrats across the state at least agree on one thing: the polling in this race seems wildly unreliable, with numerous operatives and party pollsters arguing that public polls don’t necessarily match the reality on the ground. If anything, they say, the race is simply too close to call.

There are several reasons for this disconnect. For starters, there’s no real recent precedent for a competitive statewide Democratic primary for pollsters to model. And with no required party registration, it’s difficult to capture a reliable snapshot of an electorate that may be in flux.

“How you model the electorate matters, and we don’t know exactly what the final composition of the electorate is,” Rottinghaus said.

Polling has also been severely underfunded in the state for decades. Nancy Zdunkewicz, founder of Z to A Research, said some recent public crosstabs simply don’t align with what you’d expect to see out of such a competitive race and that some of the web-panel polling “would never pass muster on an actual campaign.”

The numbers rolling in today should show which polls, if any, are able to capture the reality on the ground.

Who do Democrats think is the future?

While Talarico and Crockett have nearly identical platforms, their individual political brands couldn’t be more different. The question for Democrats is: Who do voters see as the future of the party?

Talarico entered the race last year on a wave of momentum, introducing himself to voters from the flatbed of a pickup truck parked outside a white clapboard church. The teacher-turned-state lawmaker has since built a formidable fundraising machine and a massive online fan base — only further fueled by a recent clash with the Federal Communications Commission over an interview with “The Late Show with Stephen Colbert.”

Crockett, meanwhile, had already established her profile on Capitol Hill as a fiery lawmaker with a knack for delivering direct, quotable criticisms of her GOP colleagues.

The result? Voters are ultimately weighing two theories of the case: a measured coalition-builder who pitches unity, or an energetic fighter who has ignited the activist wing of the party.

“I think Democratic primary voters are trying to be thoughtful about that. They really are trying to be pragmatic as to who has the best chance to win in November,” said Matt Angle, director of Lone Star Project PAC, which works to defeat Republicans in Texas.

Can the party mend its divisions?

Throughout this campaign, influencers online have sparked intense debates over race, gender and electability — all long-standing rifts within Texas Democratic politics. For months, supporters of both candidates have launched into vitriolic personal attacks and infighting on social media. Talarico backers have questioned whether Crockett can win in November, while Crockett’s allies have blasted those questions as racially charged.

Party operatives say the worst of the infighting has remained largely confined to social media and away from the voting booth. Still, others fear the party is at risk of being divided into factions post-primary.

“Democrats have always been divided. In some elections they hide it better than others but that legacy is still there,” said Rottinghaus. “I think a lot of this is definitely going to create a rift that might not heal before November.”

So what’s a Texas Democrat to do? Party strategists say the loser needs to concede gracefully — and quickly.

“It’s really important that the candidate that doesn’t prevail very quickly and very deliberately endorses and then goes to work,” Angle said. “It’s a real steep hill to climb for Democrats, don’t blow it based on some type of anger or division within our party.”

Will the momentum last ?

Whatever the outcome, Democrats across the state say their current situation shows that their infrastructure and strategy have improved — but they remain divided over how to keep the energy going.

Some argue that the party structure reinvigorated in recent cycles has to expand further if Democrats want to sustain this momentum. Others warn against the national party swooping in and changing the tone.

“When Democrats become nationalized, it hurts them more than it does Republicans,” Angle said. “People need to invest in the Texas Democratic Party, not come in and try to run it.” 

Keeping President Donald Trump and national grievances front and center may drive headlines, but netting votes means staying on-message locally.

And then there’s the money. Republicans will almost certainly have more funding and infrastructure. The challenge for Democrats is making sure local issues don’t get lost in the fray. Keeping President Donald Trump and national grievances front and center may drive headlines, but netting votes means staying on-message locally.

Tuesday’s primary will settle who Texas Democrats choose as their Senate nominee, provided one candidate wins 50% of the vote and avoids a runoff. But the true test of Democrats’ durability in the Lone Star State is months away. 

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