Will Congress get anything done this year?
As the Trump administration has moved to centralize executive power in the past year, the legislative branch has struggled to maintain its traditional role as an effective counterweight.
Apart from passing the large tax cuts package last year, lawmakers have struggled with narrow Republican majorities, unclear goals from the president and a growing partisan divide.
With the midterms coming up, lawmakers will shift into campaigning mode, making progress even harder. But there are still some possibilities for action. Here’s what to watch for.
Will Congress pass anything?
Congress wasn’t very productive last year. What do we expect them to do this year?
Honestly, not too much. While Republicans do have control both chambers of Congress and the White House, they don’t have a supermajority in the Senate — which means most legislation requires a bipartisan 60 votes to move forward. And it’s been difficult to find bipartisan compromise in this Congress. Plus, lawmakers are likely to shift into campaign mode fairly soon, ahead of the November midterm elections.
But there are two things to keep an eye on.
- A bipartisan group of lawmakers is still holding out hope that they can land a deal on health care, after the enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies expired at the end of 2025. Before departing Washington earlier this month lawmakers were hopeful, but landing a deal has been tough. Last time the Senate was in the capital, the major hang-up was the same issue that’s held up the entire debate: abortion. Republicans want to add stricter abortion restrictions to Obamacare, but Democrats say that’s unnecessary. For now, a deal remains elusive.
- Some Republicans are still talking about passing another GOP-only package through reconciliation, the special budgetary process used during trifectas. What would be in it? That’s unclear. Could they get it done? That’s unlikely. Many rank-and-file Republicans and some key lawmakers are voicing skepticism. But the option remains on the table.
Will Democrats push back more?
Some critics of the Trump administration want Democrats to do more to stand up to it, like they did during Sen. Cory Booker’s filibuster or the shutdown. Is anything that likely to happen this year in Congress?
Yes. And we’re seeing that play out right now.
Congress faces a deadline on Friday to fund the rest of the government or face a partial shutdown. The Senate has to approve six more funding bills, which together make up for more than three-fourths of the federal government. Money for the Department of Homeland Security is included in that bundle.
After the fatal shooting of Renee Good by an Immigration and Customs Enforcement officer in Minneapolis, some Senate Democrats called on the caucus to block any new funding for ICE without substantive changes to the agency. But that sentiment wasn’t widespread. After Saturday’s deadly shooting of Alex Pretti, the caucus is now backing the strategy.
“Democrats sought common-sense reforms in the Department of Homeland Security spending bill, but because of Republicans’ refusal to stand up to President Trump, the DHS bill is woefully inadequate to rein in the abuses of ICE. I will vote no,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., said in a statement Sunday. “Senate Democrats will not provide the votes to proceed to the appropriations bill if the DHS funding bill is included.”
That position is significant. At least 60 votes are needed to advance the funding package in the Senate, meaning at least seven Democrats would have to join the 53 Republicans. As of now, with chaos continuing in Minneapolis, that prospect seems unlikely — which means it’s a real possibility that the federal government partially shuts down at the end of the day on Friday.
Will Congress change voting laws?
The SAVE Act passed the House last year. What are its chances of passing the Senate? Is there any possibility it might be signed into law at the last minute before the midterms?
The chances of the SAVE Act passing the Senate are virtually zero. It all comes down to math.
First, the background. The bill — formally titled the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility Act — would require proof of citizenship to vote in federal elections. The point, in the eyes of Republicans, is to ban noncitizens from voting in federal elections. Of course, that’s already illegal and there’s no evidence that it’s happening in any widespread way.
Republicans — including the president — had made passing this bill a key priority. In July 2024, Trump wrote on social media: “Republicans must pass the Save Act, or go home and cry yourself to sleep.”
The next April, the House passed the bill in a 220-208 vote, with just four Democrats joining Republicans in support to send it to the Senate, where it remains stuck.
Again, the Senate has a 60-vote threshold to end debate, so seven Democrats would have to join all 53 Republicans. That’s not going to happen.
What will Trump say?
The State of the Union is scheduled for next month. What should we expect?
Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., officially invited the president to deliver the first State of the Union address of his second term on Feb. 24. (Although he gave an address to a joint session of Congress in 2025, it was not technically a State of the Union address.)
From the dais, expect Trump to go over what he views as his major accomplishments from his first year back in office. On the domestic front, that will include the tax cuts in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and efforts to cut prescription drug pricing. On foreign policy, that will include the military operation in Venezuela and helping facilitate the release of all hostages in Gaza. He’s also likely to talk about more controversial actions, including mass deportations and massive staff cuts at federal agencies and tariffs.
It will be interesting to see how much he touches on tricky subjects such as Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency effort, his pressure campaign on universities and his attempt to abolish the Department of Education.
The likely tone of the address is already clear from the speaker’s invitation.
“Together in 2025, your administration and the 119th Congress delivered one of the most consequential agendas in history, and Americans across this great country will experience the tangible results of commonsense governance,” Johnson said in his invitation.
In the chamber overall, be on the lookout for some heckling from Democrats. It’s become standard in recent years for lawmakers from the opposing party to make their displeasure known, whether that’s wearing coordinated clothing in protest, holding up signs or even booing loudly.
Every year, congressional leaders urge their ranks to maintain decorum during the speech. And every year, the hecklers arrive.
Who will win in November?
What is the conventional wisdom on Capitol Hill right now about the upcoming primaries and the November midterms?
Both sides are acting confident.
Democrats see major public displeasure with everything from the erratic tariff policy to the slashing of government programs to ICE officers’ actions in Minneapolis to Department of Justice investigations into Trump’s political opponents. They think this will only add to the usual “fifth year” midterm problems faced by the president’s party.
Republicans, meanwhile, argue that Trump’s foreign policy actions, the healthy stock market and the tax cuts will give them good odds at holding their majorities.
So who’s right?
Polls say that Democrats currently have a slight edge. A generic ballot released by the New York Times and Siena College this month found that 48% of voters would prefer the Democratic candidate if the 2026 midterm elections were held today, compared with 43% backing Republicans. Nine percent said they didn’t know or refused.
But the midterms aren’t for nine months — an eternity in politics. A lot could change in that period that might swing the pendulum in either direction.
This is a preview of MS NOW’s Project 47 Newsletter. As President Trump continues implementing his ambitious agenda, get expert analysis on the administration’s latest actions and how others are pushing back sent straight to your inbox every Tuesday. Sign up now.
Mychael Schnell is a reporter for MS NOW.