Two years before the 2028 presidential election, the race has already begun.
Vice President JD Vance enjoys early support from conservatives and is slated to play a major role in the midterm campaign as he serves as chief fundraiser for his party. California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro are both releasing memoirs in February 2026. Former Vice President Kamala Harris is touring swing states to promote her own book about her 2024 campaign. And Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y. — who recently amplified a poll showing her ahead of Mr. Vance in a hypothetical matchup — begins her year with a major speech at Zohran Mamdani’s inauguration ceremony.
For would-be candidates in both parties, 2026 will serve as a crucial test of their political appeal, their ability to raise money and their skill at navigating their respective parties’ anxieties and ambitions. As the year starts, they’re locked in a covert courting period, staying coy about their interest in national office even as they methodically build support.
“The talented and smart are in a mad rush for influential people who are willing to be in their corner,” said Jay Townsend, a political consultant who has worked on Republican presidential campaigns. “They’re quietly raising money already.”
Some, like Newsom and Shapiro, are releasing memoirs, typically a tell-tale sign of candidates-in-waiting. Such books offer contenders a way “to own your story and define your narrative,” according to Karen Finney, a Democratic operative who advised on Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign. Other shortlisters, like Vance, Harris and Maryland Gov. Wes Moore, have already published bestselling memoirs. Harris recently expanded tour dates for her new book about her historic 107-day candidacy, which will see her travel to four swing states and South Carolina, which was Democrat’s first-in-the-nation primary state in 2024.
One Democratic National Committee member, who requested anonymity to discuss internal planning, said there is a “rush of energy” surrounding 2028 preparations, including selecting a convention site and deciding which states should hold early primaries. There is “some anxiety around the type of nominee” after two women lost to Trump in 2016 and 2024, the member said.
“I definitely see and feel the pushback a lot, which is people being like, ‘Kamala is still incredibly popular. Let’s not write her off,’” the member said. “But I also hear from people that say, ‘I can’t live through another rejection of a woman candidate.’”
Vance leads, but others circle
On the Republican side, Vance appears to be the early front-runner, bolstered by his position as vice president and his ties to Mr. Trump’s inner circle. “For 2028, right now, it’s Vance’s race to win or lose,” said Garrett Ventry, a Trump ally who runs the lobbying firm GRV Strategies. “He has that institutional support.”
But other Republicans are positioning themselves. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, whose podcast has grown in popularity, “is as ambitious as they come,” Townsend said. “I don’t think he’s going to look at JD Vance and be intimidated. He faced down Donald Trump and was the last one standing, so why shouldn’t he go for it?” Former Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, Florida Sen. Rick Scott and Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem have each made visits to Iowa in recent months, historically a sign of an official who wishes to be in the presidential conversation.
Iowa GOP Chairman Jeff Kaufmann, who chairs the Republican National Committee’s presidential nominating process, said his team expects to deliver an initial report on the primary calendar at the RNC meeting later this month in Santa Barbara, Calif. “I’d never say absolutely until it’s officially passed, but it’s looking more and more inevitable that Iowa will be first in the nation again,” he said.
One White House official said it’s still “too early” for the president to focus on boosting his next successor. But Trump has repeatedly praised both Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, calling a prospective Vance-Rubio ticket “unstoppable.”
A person close to Vance said he plans to play a “big role” on the campaign trail this year, when he’s expected to criss-cross the nation delivering speeches focused on the economy.
Whether Republicans can turn around public sentiment on inflation could prove pivotal as the party defends majorities in both chambers of Congress.
“To date, the polling data is relatively clear that despite some progress, voters still feel they cannot get ahead in today’s economy,” said Ken Spain, a Republican strategist. “Republicans must find a way to recapture the narrative on cost for 2026 and beyond.”
Democratic governors position for 2028
Among Democrats, Newsom leads early polling, along with Harris. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Ocasio-Cortez follow closely behind. But a clutch of governors are also seen as eyeing the top job.
“I do think the next president is more likely to be a governor,” Finney said. “They are chief executives, and they can talk about results in a way that is harder when you’re a senator or come from a legislative body.”
Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, a billionaire who has been a major Democratic donor, is also seen as a potential candidate. Moore, who will lead the National Governors Association starting in mid-2026, hired two former Harris campaign aides to his state office last year: media strategy director Ammar Moussa and communications strategist Rhyan Lake. Like Mr. Newsom, he has launched a redistricting effort in his state. He has repeatedly said he is not running for president.
For governors running for re-election this year — including Shapiro, Pritzker and Moore — balancing state campaigns with national ambitions presents a delicate challenge.
Shapiro faces particular pressure to help Democrats win in Pennsylvania, a key battleground. He backed the state’s new party chair, Eugene DePasquale, who will be tasked with rebuilding from Democrats’ 2024 losses.
While Newsom has the advantage of being at the end of his governorship — freeing him up to focus on what’s next — other governors can’t take their eyes off the prize of winning in November.
The affordability message
Democrats believe economic issues — especially the many cost of living concerns now grouped together under the umbrella of “affordability” — will bolster their chances in the midterms. The DNC member told MS NOW that party leaders have been “very clear” with candidates that messaging on affordability cuts across demographic groups.
“It’s very easy” to “point the finger at the governing party if things are perceived as not going well,” said Ventry, though he acknowledged the dynamics were flipped under former President Biden. “It’s much easier to throw bombs than to govern.”
In an interview with Vanity Fair, Vance set modest expectations for the midterms, suggesting that losing a dozen House seats and two or three Senate seats would be acceptable. “I think it will be better than that,” he added.
Allan Lichtman, a presidential historian, noted that significant midterm losses have historically preceded changes in White House control, as happened before Trump’s 2016 victory and Biden’s win in 2020.
“While it’s not an absolute predictor, it is an indicator of momentum going into a presidential election,” said Lichtman. “2026 will mean a lot for 2028.”
