On election night in 2008, a crowd gathered in our front yard in Carrboro, North Carolina, to watch the returns on a projector screen. The atmosphere was celebratory, with a hint of nervous uncertainty. Most people believed Barack Obama was about to become the first Black man elected president of the United States. Beverly Perdue was poised to become the first woman to serve as governor of North Carolina, and Kay Hagan seemed likely to defeat Republican Sen. Elizabeth Dole.
By 11 p.m., Perdue and Hagan had secured their victories. And as the polls closed on the West Coast, news outlets quickly called the race for Obama. But the race was not over for us. North Carolina had not been called, and Obama trailed John McCain by just a couple of thousand votes. The results from Buncombe County, home to the Democratic stronghold of Asheville, were not yet in. Finally, early Wednesday, Buncombe County reported that Obama had carried the county by more than 17,000 votes, giving him a 14,000-vote lead in the state.
Nobody has been able to replicate Obama’s performance since his 2008 victory — including Obama himself in 2012.
Obama was the first Democrat since Jimmy Carter to win North Carolina. Tar Heel Democrats believed they had turned a corner: The state was finally becoming blue at the federal level. Then, nothing. Over the next 14 years, Republicans won the state in three presidential elections and four U.S. Senate races. Nobody has been able to replicate Obama’s performance since his 2008 victory — including Obama himself in 2012. The contests were usually among the closest in the country, but North Carolina Democrats kept coming up short.
This year, or at least this month, feels different. Vice President Kamala Harris has created an excitement among Democrats reminiscent of Obama’s 2008 campaign. Like then, the North Carolina Democratic Party is fielding a stellar lineup of state candidates, led by the nominee for governor, Attorney General Josh Stein. State party chair Anderson Clayton, a 26-year-old dynamo, has focused on making inroads into rural areas and exciting young people hungry for change. Recent polls show the presidential race here to be neck and neck since President Joe Biden got out.
For Democrats like me, though, it’s hard to trust the excitement. We’ve had the football pulled out from under us too many times. In 2014, ISIS and Ebola helped nationalize the Senate race, giving Thom Tillis the momentum to defeat Hagan by less than 50,000 votes in a race she had led in most polls. In 2020, Cal Cunningham’s libido handed Tillis a second term. Who knows what will happen this fall?
For Democratic dreams to come true in North Carolina, Harris will need to re-create the Obama coalition, driving up turnout among people of color and young voters. When Biden fell 75,000 votes short of winning the state in 2020, he struggled to turn out enough of these voters, while Donald Trump drew record numbers from his base.
When Obama first ran, 73% of Black voters cast ballots, slightly outperforming the electorate as a whole and matching the participation of their white counterparts. Twelve years later, as overall turnout increased to 75% and white turnout surged to 79%, African American turnout dropped to 68%.
Beyond a reconstructed Obama coalition, Democrats are placing their hopes in two other facts.
The importance of youth turnout, meanwhile, has only grown since Obama’s victory. North Carolina’s population is not only growing quickly; it is also getting older, probably due to the influx of retirees into the state’s coastal and mountain communities. From 2008 to 2020, the share of registered voters who were over 65 increased from 17% to over 21%. Turnout in that age group jumped from 72.6% in 2008 to a whopping 84% in 2020. And exit polls indicate that Trump won those voters by almost 20 points.
Biden scored similar margins among young people. But as with Black voters, young voter turnout declined from 2008 (64.5%) to 2020 (63%). Had both groups turned out in 2020 at the same rates as in 2008, Biden would have won the state despite Trump’s favorable electorate.
Beyond a reconstructed Obama coalition, Democrats are placing their hopes in two other facts. First, women have always had made up a larger proportion of the electorate than men in North Carolina. In 2020, women had about a 9% advantage over men. Exit polls indicated men preferred Trump by 11 points, while women preferred Biden by about seven 7. With a woman at the top of the ticket and abortion a more salient issue, Democrats believe that more women will move toward Harris this year.
Second, the state is getting more diverse. White voters as a percentage of the electorate have fallen by almost 10 points since 2008, from 73.6% to 64%. Today, North Carolina has much larger Asian and Hispanic populations. By Election Day, the number of Latino or Hispanic voters is projected to increase to more than 310,000, almost 100,000 more than in 2020 — and last election, exit polls found they voted for Biden 57% to 40%.
The GOP base — especially given older voters’ sky-high 2020 turnout — has very little potential for growth, while Democrats’ base has plenty of room for expansion. Harris provides an inspiring, dynamic candidate looking to the future, declaring, “We won’t go back,” just as Obama offered “hope and change.” Also like Obama, Harris and her running mate, Tim Walz, are bringing to the campaign an infectious optimism that is reflected in the massive crowds at their rallies.
In a race in which every vote matters, the drag on Trump from down-ballot races could make the difference.
The national ticket is bolstered in North Carolina with a strong supporting cast down the ballot. Harris sits atop a diverse slate of veteran North Carolina politicians that includes Stein, who would be the first Jewish governor of the state; Rachel Hunt, daughter of former Gov. Jim Hunt, who is running for lieutenant governor; and Rep. Jeff Jackson, who is running for attorney general. They reflect a diversifying state and bring broad appeal to the race.
Republicans, in contrast, have a problematic ticket. Their candidate for governor, Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, has a long history of making inflammatory and derogatory remarks and trails Stein by 10 points in two recent polls. The GOP nominee for superintendent of public instruction has received national coverage for calling for a military coup after Jan. 6 and for advocating the public execution of Democrats, including Obama, Biden and Gov. Roy Cooper. In a race in which every vote matters, the drag on Trump from down-ballot races could make the difference.
Four years ago, Trump drove out his older, working-class base, creating the most favorable electorate possible for him, and still won by only just 1.3 points. Now North Carolina Democrats see an opportunity to break down the barriers that have kept them from celebrating federal victories for 16 years. As for me, on election night, I’ll be watching on the big screen, hoping I can believe again.
