UPDATE (Jan. 16, 2025; 9:58 a.m. ET): This article has been updated to reflect ongoing developments in the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas.
Confirmation of a ceasefire and hostage release deal couldn’t have come a moment sooner for the more than 2 million Palestinians in Gaza who have been living in a war zone for the last 15 months. The same can be said of the families of the hostages, who have prayed day after day for their loved ones to return home from a hellish captivity. The first day of the ceasefire was announced to be Sunday, although things have been complicated by the fact that shortly after the deal was announced, Israel said it is delaying a cabinet meeting to approve the agreement, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accusing Hamas of creating a “last-minute crisis” by “reneging” on parts of the agreement, though he did not offer details about his claim.
While the text of the deal hasn’t been released yet, the framework appears exactly the same as what President Joe Biden proposed in May — a three-stage agreement whereby the war pauses for six weeks, some hostages in specific categories are exchanged for Palestinian prisoners, Israeli troops gradually withdraw from Gaza, and negotiations on a permanent end to the war commence. Hamas will reportedly release 33 hostages during the first phase of the deal in return for Israel’s releasing roughly 1,000 Palestinians in Israeli jails. Israeli troops will also withdraw from populated areas in Gaza during this time, including from the Netzarim Corridor, which bisects the territory, which will allow Palestinian civilians displaced from the north to return to their homes. And although Israeli troops will continue to hold on to the Philadelphi Corridor along the Egypt-Gaza border during the first phase, the Israel Defense Forces will eventually pull out of the area once all the hostages are released.
Immediately after the agreement was clinched, Trump took to social media to declare victory.
Ultimately, it’s far too early to know who deserves credit for this ceasefire. President-elect Donald Trump, however, isn’t waiting for history to write its verdict. Immediately after the agreement was clinched, Trump took to social media to declare victory: “This EPIC ceasefire agreement could have only happened as a result of our Historic Victory in November, as it signaled to the entire World that my Administration would seek Peace and negotiate deals to ensure the safety of all Americans, and our Allies.”
While Trump’s critics might roll their eyes at these characteristic boasts and delusions of grandeur, there is some evidence supporting the notion that Trump’s return to the White House contributed to Netanyahu and Hamas finally coming to terms. The evidence thus far is only circumstantial, but it’s nonetheless there: The New York Times, citing a person familiar with the negotiations, reported that Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, helped put pressure on Netanyahu earlier in the week, which may have urged the Israeli premier to approve the compromises necessary to end the war. A diplomat briefed on the ceasefire negotiations seemed to second that interpretation, telling The Washington Post that Trump’s team placed “real pressure” on Israeli negotiators to take yes for an answer. Following the announcement, Netanyahu’s office posted that he had thanked Trump for his assistance in brokering the release of Israeli hostages. Some of the families of the hostages have also given Trump at least partial credit, writing, “We feel hopeful that under President Trump’s leadership, every last hostage will come home.”
If those observations are correct, then Trump in a few weeks managed to do what Biden couldn’t do over the last year. We can only speculate as to what Witkoff may have said to Netanyahu during their conversations; it’s difficult to believe, for instance, that Trump would have threatened to withdraw U.S. military aid to Israel if Netanyahu continued to stonewall an agreement. This is the man, after all, who frequently said he was the most pro-Israel U.S. president in history and often blasted Biden for not supporting Israel enough (an odd claim given the tens of billions of dollars in military aid Biden sent to Israel since the war against Hamas began). And Trump’s first term, which involved U.S. recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, recognition of the occupied Golan Heights as Israeli territory and a downgrading of U.S. relations with the Palestinian Authority, was one big gift to Netanyahu.
Even so, Trump is also the same guy who said Israel needed to finish up the war in Gaza because it was losing the public relations fight around the world. The president-elect also has a grand diplomatic agenda in the Middle East, one that includes building upon the 2020 Abraham Accords and getting Israel and Saudi Arabia to normalize their relations after decades having cooperated under the radar.
Trump is also the same guy who said Israel needed to finish up the war in Gaza because it was losing the public relations fight around the world.
Formal Israeli-Saudi ties would be a significant thing for Trump to brag about, yet they also would be impossible for Riyadh to countenance as long as Israel kept killing Palestinians in Gaza. It’s easier, perhaps, to imagine Trump and his advisers giving Netanyahu a stern message: If you don’t play ball and end the war, you will be deliberately obstructing the incoming president’s signature diplomatic mission in the Middle East. And Trump doesn’t take kindly to obstructionism.
Trump also had a personal incentive to help end the war in Gaza. The 15-month conflict, characterized by tens of thousands of casualties, immense physical destruction, mass displacement and horrific stories of civilian deprivation, has frankly made the United States look like a two-faced power that says one thing but does another. The so-called international rules-based order that Biden administration officials robotically tout every single day has been eviscerated over the last year, and much of the world no longer believes the United States is interested in actually upholding it — if it ever did. The Biden administration often complained about Netanyahu’s war strategy, but that rhetoric didn’t match the reality of U.S. policy, which gave Netanyahu unconditional support regardless of any qualms Washington had. Trump watches television and understood the dynamics at play, and he had no intention of being saddled with an unpopular war that made America look bad. Because, well, when America looks bad, he looks bad.
With this having been said, it would be a mistake to give Trump all the credit. Despite his “all hell will break out” threat if Hamas didn’t release the hostages, it’s unlikely the Palestinian group was moved by Trump’s words, either. Gaza has already been in a state of hell since October 2023, so it’s difficult to see what more Trump could do to make the situation less pleasant for Hamas and the Palestinians unfortunate to live under its purview. Hamas’ position has remained consistent throughout the hell, as well: The hostages will be allowed to go back to their loved ones only if Israel stops the war permanently and pulls its forces out. Netanyahu has at least agreed to pause hostilities to get some of the hostages back, even if a permanent end to the war still needs to be fleshed out.
After Biden delivered his speech announcing the deal, a reporter asked whether he or Trump deserved more credit for it. The president turned around, smirked and asked whether she was joking. Historians will eventually answer the question definitively. Right now, it’s safest to say both played their parts.
