It’s understandable, even laudable, that President Joe Biden began his re-election campaign by touting the economic gains the country has made since he’s been president. But he wouldn’t necessarily have to tout them if the impact of those gains were deeply felt by most people. The numbers show that Americans generally are better off than we were when Biden took office. Even so, and despite the “It’s the economy, stupid” message that helped Bill Clinton’s campaign win in 1992, if Biden isn’t getting credit for how he’s improved the economy by now, then he won’t get such credit anytime soon.
I say this as a Democrat who supports President Biden and was the press secretary for his wife, Jill Biden, the president needs to reevaluate the approach to how and what he is communicating to the American people. More than that, he needs to make the election about how Republicans have disqualified themselves from leading the country. As part of that strategy, he can do what Republicans have done effectively and use wedge issues to motivate and outrage their own voters.
Unless voters can see more money in their bank accounts or feel more cash in their pockets, an economic message will not make a difference.
Elections do not automatically mirror previous ones: What worked in 1992 as a winning message may not necessarily work in 2024. In 2004, the state of Ohio had one of the highest unemployment rates in the country. Republicans, however, placed a statewide referendum on gay marriage, then an ultra divisive values-based issue, on the ballot. Democratic nominee John Kerry lost the state by roughly 100,000 votes; had he won, he would have been President.
If there was ever a cycle that should have replicated the political tsunamis of 1994 or 2010, it would have been 2022, with the country facing the highest inflation rate in 40 years. But the midterm elections became a referendum on former president Donald Trump and the party out of power — the party that supported pro-life judges and a repeat electoral loser who selected flawed candidates — instead of a rebuke of Trump’s successor and the party in power.
We cannot fool ourselves into believing that Democrats’ success in the 2022 midterms had more to do with the economy amid record high inflation than with the anger at the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade. Part of the problem with the president boasting of “Bidenomics” is that the economy has not fully recovered and still remains uncertain, making the celebration of “Bidenomics” the political equivalent to claiming “Mission Accomplished.” That’s a mistake we in the Biden White House made in July 2021 when we proclaimed “America is back,” before reinstituting mask mandates when two new Covid variants emerged.
On top of that, “Bidenomics” reminds too many people who lived through the 1980s and ‘90s of “Reaganomics,” a term that’s anathema in places like the Lehigh Valley of Pennsylvania, the swingiest districts in one of the swingiest states. This political bellweather region in northeast Pennsylvania, just an hour south of Biden’s hometown of Scranton, was once the heartbeat of American manufacturing. In 1995, when Bethlehem Steel shut down after almost 140 years in operation, many residents of the Lehigh Valley blamed unfair trade practices and the policies known as “Reaganomics.”
The White House likes to use the frequently recycled expression coined by Obama-era staffers that they “meet people where they are.” Well, most voters are not sitting in Stanford or MIT lectures studying macroeconomic theory. Unless they can see more money in their bank accounts or feel more cash in their pockets, an economic message will not make a difference, no matter how loud Biden and his campaign shout it, and poll after poll shows that.
As my old boss, MSNBC host Chris Mathews, used to say, “Talking about numbers and stats is death for television.” What he meant was that discussing economics on television, where Biden is often making his case for a second term, does not move or excite people. It’s also not a message visceral enough to animate voters.
Voters are persuaded by powerful contrasts that are simple, straightforward, provocative, and clear. Instead of continuing to champion statistics and investments, Biden, despite his impulse to be a bipartisan peacemaker, should be working to disqualifying the other party and anyone who represents it, including anyone who emerges as its nominee.
There’s is no explanation other than political tribalism for polls consistently finding Biden tied with Trump.
Republicans have been successful when they elicit an instinctual or emotional response from voters. Florida Gov. Ron Desantis scared parents into believing that schools were leading their children astray. Republican congressional candidates used stories about crime to win seats in the suburbs of New York City that Biden had won two years earlier. Glenn Youngkin became governor of Virginia — a state Biden had won by 10 points a year earlier — by making parents believe their children were being taught outrageous things.
The president needs to lean into emotion and beat Republicans at their own game.
When crafting TV ads for swing states during the NFL season opener, rather than talk up the economy, Biden’s team should have taken advantage of the political gift delivered by Sen. Tommy Tuberville, R-Ala., and his blockade on military appointments. The campaign could have tagged the entire GOP as the anti-military party. It should have pointed out that the party of Reagan has softened on Russia and on protecting democracy and allies like Ukraine. It could have quoted none other than candidate Nikki Haley, who said Tuberville is using our military and military families as “pawns.” He’s also compromising our military readiness.
This would have been a perfect message for Biden to send, as he’s the father of a now deceased veteran and an impassioned advocate for veterans, our servicemen and women, and their families. Above all else, it would draw a sharp contrast between a president who backed veterans and military families by signing the PACT ACT versus a Republican Party who plays politics with their benefits and supports a former president who called those who made the ultimate sacrifice for our country “losers” and “suckers,” according to The Atlantic.
For an example of a Democrat who is using a wedge issue to stimulate the emotions of voters, look no further than Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, who is making abortion central to his re-election in a deep red state. Last week Beshear released an ad with a woman sharing her experience being raped by her stepfather as a child, and attacked Beshear’s anti-abortion opponent, Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron, for being extreme and out of touch with the state’s voters.
Given Biden’s first-term success, there’s no explanation other than political tribalism for polls consistently finding him tied with Trump. The president’s effectiveness and his historic accomplishments are not enough to outweigh the more provocative and superficial image-related issues that resonate with voters. Elections are a choice about two contrasting human beings.
It’s been said all politics is local. But it’s neither local nor national. All politics is personal. And Biden needs to get personal to win.
