The coalition that carried President Donald Trump to the White House in 2024 was built on a few distinct pillars: a relentless economic message, a hard-line immigration stance that galvanized his base, an alliance with popular podcast hosts who amplified his appeal and a surge of low-propensity voters who showed up in historic numbers.
Now, with the 2026 midterms in sight, each of those pillars is showing cracks — and Republicans are quietly grappling with the possibility that the formula that delivered a commanding presidential victory may not survive a midterm election.
Trump’s approval rating has sunk to 41%, its lowest point in almost a year, according to aggregate polling averages. Public confidence in the economy remains weak. And a series of Democratic victories in special elections — nine seat flips in districts Trump previously carried, according to the Democratic National Committee — has rattled Republicans who once felt secure in their congressional majorities.
“The biggest two factors that ultimately determine these races are, first and foremost, the president’s approval numbers,” said one White House ally, who requested anonymity to describe private conversations with Capitol Hill. “Then, second, is how Americans feel about the economy.”
On both counts, the trends are moving in the wrong direction.
Trump has responded with a campaign-style blitz, crisscrossing the country with Vice President JD Vance to deliver economic speeches and dispatching Cabinet officials to tout the administration’s record. He has warned supporters that if Democrats recapture enough seats this fall, then they will try to impeach him for a third time.
“I campaign hard,” Trump said last month at a rally in Iowa. “We’ve got to win the midterms. That means Senate, and it means House.”
The president is leaning on his inner circle of advisers to gut-check his political instincts, including White House chief of staff Susie Wiles, her deputy James Blair and other members of his senior staff, according to a person familiar with the matter. Lawmakers on Capitol Hill close to the president are also advising him, including Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune, the person said.
Trump’s former co-campaign manager Chris LaCivita, pollster Tony Fabrizio, Wiles and Blair, along with several other administration officials, huddled on Tuesday at the private, members-only Capitol Hill Club to discuss the president’s midterms strategy, according to two people familiar with the meeting.
Wiles told conservative podcasters on “The Mom View” in early December that the White House’s strategy would be to “put [Trump] on the ballot” in the midterms. “So many of those low-propensity voters are Trump voters,” she added. “He’s going to campaign like it’s 2024 again.”
But that coalition — which included historic gains among people of color and young voters — has shown signs of fracturing.
“Those are exactly the groups that he’s become much more unpopular with since he became president,” said Carrie Dann, managing editor of the Cook Political Report. “It’s very unclear whether those voters are even going to show up, but if they do, they may show up because they’re motivated to vote against the president’s party at this point.”
The economic argument, reversed
The party in control of the White House rarely gains seats in the midterms, and Republicans acknowledge that Trump’s political fortunes depend heavily on voters’ perceptions of the economy.
A surprisingly positive January jobs report, data showing inflation cooling year over year and the Dow Jones Industrial Average hitting a record high left the White House humming with optimism last week. Republicans are also betting that higher tax refunds this spring — a result of the $3.4 trillion spending package passed last year — will begin to shift the public’s mood.
Yet the administration has struggled to convert favorable data points into a coherent economic pitch.
“Republicans haven’t really united around one economic message that voters are actually buying,” Dann said. “The president is kind of just saying, ‘Hey, guys, the economy is great.’”
The No. 1 piece of feedback from congressional offices to the White House, including at the staff level, is for the president to “just focus on the economy,” the White House ally said.
During a trip to Davos, Switzerland, Wiles told reporters that Trump will travel abroad less frequently this year — a comment that follows criticism from Republicans worried that he’s focused too much time on foreign policy.
“Folks are less inclined to be excited to talk about foreign policy matters, whether that be Venezuela or Ukraine or Greenland,” the White House ally added. “They really want to be talking about gas prices and inflation, and the good news that is coming on those fronts.”
Immigration: The issue that turned
Even as Trump mobilizes for the midterms, some of his own decisions have complicated the effort.
Immigration — the issue Trump credits with elevating him to the presidency twice — has become a drag on his approval ratings. A growing share of Americans now view his handling of the issue negatively, even as they support his border policies, with frustrations threatening to alienate independent voters and Latino Americans — two groups with which he made historic inroads en route to his 2024 victory.
The killing of Alex Pretti by federal agents in Minnesota deepened the backlash from the broader public, additionally opening a rift between the administration and gun rights supporters who criticized federal officials for rebuking Pretti for carrying a licensed firearm while observing arrests.
“It does feed a sense that the administration isn’t doing the best job it could,” Evan Siegfried, a Republican strategist, said. “It’s planting seeds of doubt, and those seeds could sprout.”
And a debate in Congress over funding for the Department of Homeland Security — and what reforms, if any, the administration will accept to rein in federal immigration enforcement — will test whether the administration is willing to support substantive changes to its deportation operations or will pursue only cosmetic changes.
Friendly hosts, skeptical coverage
In 2024, Trump’s campaign made a deliberate bet on nontraditional media — appearing on popular podcasts and long-form interview shows to reach voters who had tuned out legacy news outlets. The strategy worked. Hosts like Joe Rogan and Theo Von helped introduce Trump to new audiences with minimal pushback.
The White House plans to run that play again.
Trump and members of his Cabinet are expected to appear on popular podcasts ahead of the midterms, according to a person familiar with the strategy. Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the vaccine skeptic-turned-health and human services secretary, recently appeared on “This Past Weekend w/ Theo Von.” Vance told “The Megyn Kelly Show” earlier this month that the White House plans to make a nontraditional media push. “It’s something we want to get back to,” Vance said, adding that such outlets have “more narrative power than the traditional media does.”
But the ecosystem that amplified Trump’s candidacy has begun generating its own critical coverage of his presidency.
Rogan, who hosts the most listened-to podcast in the country, has publicly compared Immigration and Customs Enforcement’s tactics to the Nazi gestapo. Von has criticized the administration’s handling of the Epstein files. The friendly hosts who once carried Trump’s message are now asking pointed questions — and reaching the very audiences the White House needs.
Trump recently told NBC News that the administration received “bad publicity” for the killings of Pretti and Renee Good by immigration enforcement officers. He added that he spoke to Rogan “a little bit” about his ICE concerns.
“I think we do a phenomenal job, but I don’t think we’re good at public relations,” Trump said.
Structural advantages, strategic missteps
The warning signs extend beyond polling. Republicans have underperformed or lost seats in multiple Republican-held territories across the country since Trump took office.
“Trump and Republicans should be nervous because Democrats are coming for their seats and their majorities,” Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin said in a statement.
Republicans are not without advantages. The party holds a sizable Senate majority, and Trump’s super PAC, MAGA Inc., reported more than $300 million on hand in January — part of a $1.5 billion war chest that gives vulnerable Republicans an unusual financial edge in a landscape where Democrats typically outraise their rivals.
But some of Trump’s decisions have undercut those efforts. He pardoned Rep. Henry Cuellar, D-Texas, a move he now regrets because Cuellar is running for re-election as a Democrat in a competitive House district. In Texas’ U.S. Senate race, Trump has declined to make an endorsement — he opted on Sunday to back the top three Republican candidates in the primary — leaving incumbent John Cornyn exposed to a costly primary challenge from MAGA-aligned Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt.
“He’s taken his eye off the ball” with decisions that “have been self-inflicted mistakes,” said Kyle Kondik, an analyst at Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a nonpartisan newsletter from the University of Virginia Center for Politics.
Trump has also alarmed election officials by proposing to end state oversight of elections in “some areas,” rattling officials concerned that the remarks could be a precursor to election interference.
His approach to the election is “ruthless,” Kondik says. “He’s pulling out all the stops to try to win in the midterms.”
Whether the stops Trump is pulling are the right ones is the question hanging over the Republican Party — especially when the electorate he once energized is now the one he must answer to.
— Vaughn Hillyard and Soorin Kim contributed reporting to this article
