With a daunting reelection battle ahead, vulnerable House Republicans are already in a precarious position — and the looming expiration of Obamacare subsidies will only make things worse.
With those stakes in mind, and over the objections of Republican leaders, these battleground Republicans mounted an unusually public effort to extend the subsidies ahead of a vote on a GOP health care bill later this week. And Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., wouldn’t allow it.
On Tuesday, Rep. Mike Lawler, R-N.Y. — one of three Republicans representing a district Kamala Harris won in 2024 — stood up during a private GOP conference meeting and said it was a mistake not to have a vote on extending the subsidies, three sources in the room told MS NOW.
Minutes later, Lawler delivered a similar message to the cameras.
“It’s idiotic not to have an up-or-down vote on this issue,” Lawler said.
He added that Republicans broadly believe the Affordable Care Act has failed. But refusing to vote on extending the subsidies in some form — paired with changes that Republicans want, like income limits, eliminating zero-premium plans, Pharmacy Benefit Manager reform and Health Savings Account expansion — was “political malpractice.”
“I am pissed, for the American people,” Lawler said. “This is absolute bullshit.”
Rep. Kevin Kiley, R-Calif. — whose district was carved up as part of California’s Democratic redistricting effort — was asked if not holding a vote on the subsidies puts vulnerable Republicans at more political risk. He said it was larger than just vulnerable Republicans.
“It puts everybody in a position where they’re gonna have to explain to their constituents why Congress failing to act has made their life worse,” Kiley said.
Later on Tuesday, during a meeting between more moderate Republicans and Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., the vulnerable Republicans continued expressing their concerns, with the meeting turning “tense” at moments, one of the lawmakers present told MS NOW.
Still, Johnson and other GOP leaders were unmoved. Late Tuesday, the House Rules Committee refused to give these Republicans a vote on an amendment to extend the subsidies.
The growing friction comes as lawmakers face a moment of reckoning on the subsidies. This week is the last one that Congress is in session before the tax credits expire at the end of the year. And after the Senate failed to act last week, action is in the House’s hands.
But Republican leaders wouldn’t give these Republicans a vote, fearing that an amendment to extend the subsidies could actually be adopted if Democrats and more moderate Republicans supported the proposal.
Talks between these Republican and their GOP leaders repeatedly collapsed in recent days, with these vulnerable Republicans discussing at least four variations of an amendment to extend the subsidies, according to a source involved in the talks who was not authorized to discuss the private conversations.
With leaders refusing to give them a vote, these more moderate GOP lawmakers now have a number of options.
For one, they could join Democrats to vote against the rule on the floor, which could cause even more problems for GOP leaders who are trying to vote on their health care proposal Wednesday.
But for another, the vulnerable Republicans could also try a different tact: a discharge petition.
Two discharge petitions — one led by Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, R-Pa., and another by Rep. Josh Gottehimer, D-N.J. — both have signatures from both parties. But both are likely to fail unless Democrats almost unanimously get behind the efforts.
A third effort, however, led by Jeffries, is four signatures away from the magic number of 218. That mechanism would force a vote on a clean, three-year extension of the subsidies, which vulnerable Republicans are threatening to get behind if GOP leaders don’t give them an amendment vote.
Asked Tuesday morning if he would sign on to the Jeffries effort, Lawler had an ominous response: “All options are on the table.”
For now, the whole debate is mostly symbolic.
While a successful discharge petition could ramp up the political pressure and lead to substantive action, the votes in the House this week are mostly about easing political pressure.
The GOP health care bill is aimed at lowering costs. But even if it passes the House — which is no sure thing — it’s unlikely to clear the Senate’s 60-vote threshold because the bill doesn’t extend the enhanced tax credits.
Instead, the legislation includes a hodgepodge of conservative ideas, like codifying and expanding association health plans, allowing employers to fund individually selected coverage rather than group plans, appropriating money for cost-sharing reductions in the ACA marketplace, and imposing new transparency requirements on pharmacy benefit managers.
Practically speaking, even if the bill passes, the Obamacare subsidies are all but certain to expire on Dec. 31, leaving millions of Americans to grapple with higher premiums. And politically, the lapse hands Democrats a potent line of attack heading into the 2026 midterms.
“There’s at least 15 to 20 members that are really upset about this, who really, it’s gonna affect their elections,” one House Republican told MS NOW of the subsidies.
Meanwhile, Democrats are already sharpening their political attacks.
“In just two weeks, tens of millions of Americans are gonna experience dramatically increased health insurance premiums because of the Republican refusal to extend the Affordable Care Act tax credits,” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., said Monday night.
Mychael Schnell is a reporter for MS NOW.