Big Democratic wins in special elections this year, combined with larger-than-expected blue margins for gubernatorial candidates in Virginia and New Jersey, sparked hopes for a competitive race, if not a shocking upset, in Tuesday’s special election in Tennesee’s 7th Congressional District, which Republicans specifically gerrymandered to be safely red.
The mighty 7th did get to bask in its 15 minutes of fame Tuesday. Actually it was more like 70 minutes between the time the polls closed and the race was called for Republican Matt Van Epps, who defeated Democrat Aftyn Behn by a little under 9 points. President Donald Trump won the same district by 22 points in 2024. So should Democrats be energized that Van Epps won with a single-digit margin or be deflated that a race that an independent poll had essentially tied a week before the election wasn’t really close?
Should Democrats be energized that Van Epps won with a single-digit margin or be deflated that a race that an independent poll had essentially tied wasn’t really close?
If you’re a Democrat taking the glass-half-full approach, then your analysis is that while Behn didn’t win, every county in the district— be it rural, suburban or urban— was more blue (by 7 to 20 points) than it was in 2024. Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin said in a statement that Behn’s performance is “historic and a flashing warning sign for Republicans heading into midterms.” Republican operative Matt Whitlock also called Tuesday night’s numbers “one of the biggest flashing red light warning signs we’ve seen yet for Republicans.”
If you’re taking the glass-half-empty approach, you point out that the goal of an election is to win it, not overperform; you’re not satisfied with a moral victory — you wanted a political earthquake. Not only did that not happen, but the 13-point swing toward Democrats in Tennessee’s 7th was less than the swing in the Democrats’ direction in special elections in Florida, Virginia, Arizona and Texas this year.
That might have something to do with how Behn presented herself to voters. For the most part, Behn in her paid messaging didn’t offer herself to voters as a defined person or personality with a compelling biography or record of accomplishment. She seemed to believe her positions mattered more than her story, but that’s not how political campaigns are won. By contrast, Behn’s opponent Van Epps presented himself as a character straight out of GOP central casting: white guy with a cute wife and small child, military veteran, service in state government, servile fealty to Trump and no personally held positions on any issue deviating from rigid party orthodoxy.
Other than the fact that she is an elected state representative — which she often downplayed to come off as an outsider — Behn’s messaging gave voters little information about who she is or what she has done. Is it enough to just ask voters to see you as a “fighter” who will take on billionaires and special interests? That may be enough for your party’s motivated base, but to flip a red seat blue next year, Democrats must reach people who are merely interested voters — that is, not political junkies and activists.
When we think about people who are choosing not between a candidate and their opponent, but between a candidate and staying home, a more engaging and compelling candidate story feels necessary.
Operationally, Behn was a strong candidate. She assembled a good team, raised sufficient money, showed up everywhere and marshaled a robust field and turnout army. But Democrats may be left wondering if they could have won Tuesday had their party primary been more combative. Behn’s three primary opponents were serious people running serious campaigns (two state lawmakers and one public affairs consultant). Yet none did the kind of opposition research (or deployed it if they did have it) that would have alerted voters to the messaging risks in Behn’s past, that is the things she had said and done on tape as a progressive activist and organizer on issues such as immigration and gender identity.
Democrats may be left wondering if they could have won Tuesday had their party primary been more combative.
Instead it was left to conservative political action committees to juice GOP turnout by slicing and splicing Behn into an endless stream of “look what she said in her own words” spots. Her past statements served up nicely seared red meat for Republican attack ads designed to activate their base (and perhaps scare off a few moderate Democrats). And it worked. One lesson from Tuesday, then, is that primaries matter — not just having them, but having them be productive.
Some liberal activists in Tennessee are claiming that Behn’s performance heralds a promising future for progressive politics in the South. However, after Tuesday’s results, the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics Crystal Ball immediately shifted its 2026 prediction for TN-7 from “likely Republican” back to “Safe Republican.”
Ouch.
